一 | Sophie 编译 新西兰即将迎来“非典型”的厄尔尼诺夏季，这将给西部和东部带来大量的变化，而这一巨大的气候驱动因素将表现出“潮湿-干燥”的特点。 "A large part of former President Trump's popularity with his supporters is that he fights back against the establishment, whether it be the 'swamp' in Washington, DC, or the political party elites," says Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. "He has certainly been speaking out about the raid, but we will have to wait to see if anything comes of it. By that I mean whether there are any charges actually filed. Unlike most Americans, and aside from his media platforms, Trump has the resources to fight what he thinks are unfair actions by the government.",The FBI's unannounced search of Donald Trump's premises in Mar-a-Lago, Florida has reinvigorated his base, a Politico/Morning Consult survey shows. 58 percent of Republican voters said they would vote for the former president if the 2024 Republican presidential primary were today. The share of support is visibly up from 54% in July and 53% in June, according to the pollsters. Likewise, a whopping 71% of GOP voters insist that Trump should run for president in 2024. Moreover, 72% of Republicans said they disagreed with the Mar-a-Lago raid.,Sputnik ExplainsFirst Assange, Now Trump: How Espionage Act of 1917 Became a Political Tool15:16 GMT,The Daily Mail argues, however, that the poll was conducted prior to the release of the FBI's search warrant and receipt, which showed that the bureau took at least 11 sets of classified documents from Trump's Florida house, with the Justice Department having probable cause to carry out the search based on possible Espionage Act abuses.,However, on August 13, Fox News broke that the FBI had allegedly laid their hands on documents shielded by client-attorney and executive privilege, with Donald Trump taking to his social media platform Truth Social and demanding that the documents in question be returned. The president lambasted the bureau for the raid, insisting that it was unnecessary and unjustified given that all documents in his possession were declassified and he and his team were ready to provide access to them any time.,"For the FBI to raid the home of the 45 President of the United States, or any President for that matter, is totally unheard of and unthinkable," Trump wrote on Sunday. "This Break In was a sneak attack on democracy (our Republic!), and was both unannounced and done at a time when the President was not even present.",Trump supporters reacted passionately to the ex-president's posts by rallying outside Mar-a-Lago and Trump's Bedminster, New Jersey golf club. They were seen holding signs reading "Save America" and "You raided the wrong president.",Sputnik ExplainsHow Trump's 2024 Bid & Jan 6 Committee's Effort to Delegitimize Him May Pan Out19 July, 18:41 GMT,Midterm Elections at Stake,The unfolding situation will definitely backfire on the upcoming November midterm elections, according to Hagle.,"The overall effect on the midterm elections will vary depending on how the situation plays out," the political science professor says. "Trump supporters, and Republicans more generally, were already quite motivated to vote in the midterms, but this just intensifies that desire. Democrats were less motivated and the party was desperately searching for something to get their base motivated. Some thought the Supreme Court's abortion decision might do so, but that doesn't seem to have happened beyond a certain group of core voters.",Hagle notes that Democrats were successful with an "anti-Trump" approach in 2020; he believes that they would like to try that again.,"The thinking might be that if Trump is, figuratively, on the ballot it would help them in the midterms," the academic remarks. "I'm not so sure. There may be some who get more motivated with an anti-Trump fervor, but the economy will still be the key for the important voters who are less concerned about politics and more about day to day living.",The FBI raid came after mainstream media reports that Trump may announce his presidential bid in September 2022 or even earlier. Politico and The Washington Post reported in mid-July that the former president had met with top Republican donors, discussing the midterms and a potential 2024 campaign.,The DoJ investigation into Trump triggered speculation that he may announce his new presidential bid very soon, the Daily Mail reports, also referring to a new "campaign-style video" released by the ex-president on his Truth Social platform.,Meanwhile, Republican Senator Rand Paul has called on US lawmakers to repeal the 1917 Espionage Act, after it turned out that the DoJ suspects Trump of violating Section 793 of the law. Section 793 specifically addresses "gathering, transmitting or losing defense information," and also includes refusal to return information that is demanded by the government.,"I don't think it's realistic to suggest that it be repealed," says Hagle. "It's more likely that certain limitations could be placed on it to help prevent the abuses that people perceive are occurring with it.",In addition to that, there are assumptions that the FBI raid was nothing short of a fishing expedition connected to the probe by the House Select Committee on January 6 Attack aimed at delegitimizing him before the 2024 race.,"The Justice Department should 'show that this was not just a fishing expedition, that they had due cause to go in and to do this, that they did exhaust all other means," Republican Senator Mike Rounds told NBC's Meet the Press, suggesting that the release of the FBI's affidavit would help. "And if they can't do that, then we've got a serious problem on our hands."。从下周开始，北岛将率先迎来一阵潮湿的天气。
二 | 对于新西兰的夏天来说，厄尔尼诺通常意味着东北部炎热干燥，西南部潮湿多雨，全国大部分地区将有西风。 Advertise with us 不过，正如Niwa刚刚发布的未来三个月天气展望所显示的那样，今年夏季的情况可能不会完全像往常那样。 虽然新西兰人仍然会感受到厄尔尼诺天气系统的影响——将有更多更强的西风和西北风——但与过去的事件相比，Niwa预计环流模式和气流的变化会更大。 这种变化——部分是由于赤道西太平洋仍然异常温暖——增加了一些使得某些大型亚热带降雨天气影响到这里的可能性，尽管不会像去年夏季那样频繁。 （图片来源：Niwa） Niwa预报员Ben Noll说：“我们预计将受到非典型厄尔尼诺的非典型影响，不仅在太平洋地区，而且在全球范围内都会有异常温暖的天气。
三 | ” “就我们的天气而言，我们将在月初感受到这些不寻常的影响，本月的第一周全国都可能将相当潮湿。” 据Niwa预测，南岛北部的降雨量接近正常水平，南岛西部的降雨量接近或高于正常水平，其余地区的降雨量接近或低于正常水平。
四 | 再往南，强低压预计将在12月中下旬为南岛西部和南部带来强降雨，这将增加圣诞节期间发生洪水的风险。 同时，两岛东部和北岛北部的气温很可能高于平均水平，而其他地区的气温则接近或高于平均水平。 Noll表示，对于那些更温暖、更干燥的地区，夏季气温升至35度左右“是完全有可能的”。 “考虑到可能的西北气流，无论是澳大利亚气团还是亚热带气团都可以产生这种气温。” Noll说，虽然东部几个地区仍有夏季干旱的风险，但这次的厄尔尼诺似乎不会像1997-98年那样，给农民带来长达数月的干旱威胁。 “我们可能会有三周、四周或五周的干旱，但之后可能会有一段不同类型的天气，或会持续一到两周，可能会在一定程度上减轻或缓解干旱带来的不利影响。” 相关阅读： 闷热黏糊的夏天要来了，下周奥克兰等地或有暴雨 暂时温暖别大意，寒冷天气蓄势待发！24小时内气温或骤降10度 奥克兰发布强雷暴监测！下午和晚上北岛或遭遇暴雨和冰雹 恶劣天气又要来了！新西兰多地发布暴雨和强风预警 本周奥克兰等地将有零星阵雨或大雨，周末天气会很好 本周又是天气不稳定的一周 气象部门已发布橙色暴雨警告 全国各地气温骤降，南岛大范围降雪，周末奥克兰多云多雨 假期结束，风雨来袭！奥克兰的雨下午就到！ 天气异常变化：本周五，新西兰这里将下雪 厄尔尼诺来袭 新西兰今夏出现热带气旋的风险有多大？ 炎热干燥！今年夏天新西兰的气温或将飙升至39度 厄尔尼诺现象来了！几周之内，新西兰气候会发生怎样的巨大变化？ 厄尔尼诺来袭 2024或成史上最热一年 “厄尔尼诺”在路上，全球天气会受何影响？ 科学解释：今年雨水为什么格外泛滥？何时到头？ 注：本文为编译/原创，欢迎转发分享；但严禁复制等未经授权的非法使用。违反上述声明者，本网将追究其相关法律责任。
五 | 使用授权请联系[email protected]。 chineseherald.co.nz All Rights Reserved 版权所有 (责编：Sophie) 相关内容 闷热黏糊的夏天要来了，下周奥克兰等地或有暴雨 夏季严打：奥克兰警方上周末抓到19人酒驾，37名司机被开罚单 工党官宣第54届国会团队阵容 部分资深议员排名大跌 奥克兰市长公布交通新计划：乘坐公共交通每周封顶50纽币 奥克兰北岸华人被袭案：嫌犯因精神错乱被判无罪 夜间奥克兰北岸和南区发生两起大火，居民被疏散，一学校今晨关闭 奥克兰北岸路上有一名男子死亡！死因不明，警方正在调查 【先驱自媒】新西兰总理改中文名了！办公室曝光，长这样……。
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